“Truth is the first casualty of war,” goes the old saying. Close on its heels is a burgeoning population of refugees. I can’t imagine what it’s like to face the decision of fleeing my home, but many Iranians are facing that today.
And here’s the crazy part: Iran hosts more displaced people right now than any country in the world! Most of these are Afghans who fled the multiple messes in their country.
With the now two week old war already displacing people, where will they go?
The U.S. is an unlikely option. President Trump set the refugee limit for 2026 at 7500, the lowest level since the program began in 1980. The majority of those visas are slated to go to white Afrikaners from South Africa.
With most of Europe in the process of locking down and preventing undesired immigration, it’s unlikely Iranian refugees will be welcomed there with open arms.
Since all commercial and civilian flights in and out of Iran are stopped, no one is hopping a plane to a safe country. This leaves buses, cars and feet taking refugees to adjacent countries.
In case your Middle East geography is not up to Jeopardy standards (mine wasn’t), here are the states that border Iran (Clockwise from the west): Iraq, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
Forbes says, “If displacement from Iran accelerates, Turkey and Iraq are the most likely immediate destinations due to geography and existing migration routes. But both countries are already under significant pressure from earlier refugee waves.” Turkey already hosts 3-4 million Syrians and has seen an uptick in Iranians since the brief military action in June of 2025.
As is usually the case with displaced peoples, there are no solutions that are not brutal and gut-wrenching. Let’s pray the war will be brief with minimal civilian impact.